The upcoming season promises an intriguing challenge for Auburn's new head coach, Alex Golesh, as the Tigers prepare to face a diverse range of opponents. With the release of ESPN's FPI (Foresight Power Index) projections, we can anticipate some close contests and others that may be more lopsided. Here's a breakdown of Auburn's schedule and the potential matchups that could be pivotal for Golesh's first year in charge.
The Close Calls
Baylor (Atlanta): With a 68.3% chance of winning, this game stands out as a potential close contest. Baylor's defense, ranked 128th nationally, struggled last season, losing five of their last six games. However, they still managed a 4-2 start and have a new quarterback in DJ Lagway, a transfer from Florida. Auburn's two-touchdown win in Waco last season suggests they might be able to repeat that performance, but Baylor's recent struggles and the loss of key players could make this a closer game.
Vanderbilt: Auburn's 65.2% chance of victory against Vanderbilt might be slightly overestimated. The Commodores, led by Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia, had a strong season last year, winning a program-record 10 games. Their thrilling overtime win over Auburn after Freeze's firing could be a motivating factor. Without Pavia, Vanderbilt's offense may be less potent, but Auburn will need to be prepared for a competitive game.
LSU: The Tigers' 32.7% chance of winning against LSU is intriguing. The Tigers' offense struggled last season, and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier's performance was poor. However, LSU has undergone a significant transformation under new coach Lane Kiffin, who brings in the nation's top transfer class. This game could be a true test of Auburn's strength and a potential turning point in Golesh's tenure.
Mississippi State: With a 67.5% chance of victory, Mississippi State presents another close contest. The Bulldogs had a strong finish to the season, with the rise of freshman QB Kamario Taylor. Jeff Lebby's offense showed promise, and a home game against Auburn could be a crucial opportunity for the Tigers to secure a win.
The Wider Margin Games
Southern Miss: Auburn's 91.4% chance of winning against Southern Miss is almost a certainty. The Golden Eagles had a strong season last year but lost key players, including coach Charles Huff. With the least returning production in college football and only seven career starts added in the transfer portal, Southern Miss is expected to be one of the worst teams in the FBS. This game should be a comfortable win for Auburn.
Arkansas: Arkansas' 2-10 record last season, including an embarrassing home loss to Auburn, suggests a wide margin of victory for the Tigers. With a 77.5% chance of winning, Auburn should dominate this game, especially with the Razorbacks' struggles on defense and the potential for more turnovers.
Samford: Auburn's 99.0% chance of winning against Samford is almost guaranteed. Samford had a dreadful season, firing coach Chris Hatcher and hiring a new coach. With a strong offense and a weak defense, Samford is unlikely to pose a significant challenge for Auburn.
The Challenges
Tennessee: Auburn's 34.7% chance of winning at Tennessee is a potential roadblock. The Vols had a strong season, missing the playoff by a narrow margin. With a strong offense and a question mark at quarterback, Tennessee could be a tough test for Auburn. This game could be a true indicator of Golesh's ability to lead the Tigers in a competitive environment.
Georgia: Auburn's 15.6% chance of winning at Georgia is a daunting prospect. The Bulldogs are defending SEC champions and have a strong offense and defense. Auburn's struggles in Sanford Stadium, having not won there since 2001, suggest a challenging game. This contest could be a true test of Auburn's resilience and Golesh's strategic prowess.
Alabama: With a 22.4% chance of winning at Alabama, Auburn faces a formidable challenge. The Crimson Tide had a strong season, avenging losses and winning ranked games. Kalen DeBoer's extension and the expectation of another playoff appearance make this a highly competitive game. Auburn will need to bring their A-game to have any chance of success.
Conclusion
ESPN's FPI projections offer a fascinating insight into Auburn's upcoming season. While some games seem like close calls, others are more lopsided. Golesh's ability to lead the Tigers in these diverse matchups will be a true test of his coaching prowess. The close contests against Baylor, Vanderbilt, LSU, and Mississippi State could be pivotal moments in Auburn's season, shaping their trajectory and Golesh's legacy.
